By Victoria Keraj
As Americans turn out in waves to vote for their president, the race remains close. According to the New York Times, the extremely close race could be determined by voter turnout in seven swing states: Wisconsin (WI), Michigan (MI), Pennsylvania (PA), Georgia (GA), North Carolina (NC), Arizona (AZ), and Nevada (NV) to determine the next president of the United States.
According to NPR, Harris’s most likely path to the White House involves her winning WI, MI, and PA. These three swing states are considered part of the “blue wall,”–the collection of states that have voted Democrat in recent presidential elections through 2012, according to USA Today. WI, MI, and PA have voted Democrat since 1988, except in the 2016 race when Trump won against Clinton. So far, Harris is up in the polls for MI and WI, according to ABC News.
Trump’s most likely path to winning involves him winning PA, NC, and GA. NC has voted Republican since 1980, except in 2008 when voting for Obama according to Forbes. Biden won Georgia in 2020 with a 0.23% margin, according to The Hill, which cites the “rapid population growth in the progressive and diverse Atlanta metro area” as a reason for the state’s shift from being reliably red.
Currently, Trump is polling ahead of Harris in NC and GA. Trump’s last rallies before election day will take place in NC, PA, and then end in MI, according to The Hill. PA with 19 electoral votes, the most out of the swing states, is a keystone for both Harris and Trump’s most-likely routes to winning. According to NPR, “[Trump’s] campaign has put more money into the state than anywhere else. It was decided by just over 1 percentage point in 2020, when Biden won it, and less than that in 2016.”
On Oct. 20, Trump worked as a McDonald’s fry cook as part of his campaign, and spoke with suburban voters in Feasterville, Bucks County. According to Phillyburbs the area “is the narrowest of the swing counties in southeastern Pennsylvania and, apart from Luzerne County, has the smallest divide between Republicans and Democrats as a percent of total voters.”
Harris will be holding a final rally and concert in Philadelphia, PA at the Philadelphia Museum of Art, which will include celebrities and political figures such as Oprah Winfrey and Lady Gaga. So far according to a poll by ABC News, Harris has a slight lead of 0.2%; Harris and Trump are polling 47.9% to 47.7%. The Des Moines Register conducted a poll in Iowa, a state predicted to stay red, which had Harris ahead of Trump with 47% to 44%.
In an instagram poll conducted by The Vanguard, 39 voters believe Harris will win the race with eight voters feeling Trump is more likely to win. According to the New York Times, the last states to announce their election results will be AZ and NV as they continue counting days past Election Day.
According to NPR, if Harris loses any of the “blue wall” states she could make up for them with results from AZ and NV if she doesn’t get NC or GA. NPR lists Trump’s second most likely path to victory as winning the three blue wall states like he did in 2016 along with AZ. In those cases, AZ and NV would need to finish counting to declare the president.
As of writing, the election results are not known. As Americans eagerly wait to see who will lead the country for the next four years, it remains to be seen who Americans have ultimately picked.
This is a developing story. The Vanguard will provide updates as they are made available.