By: Samuel Mortel
2025 was a spectacular year for movies, and on Sunday, March 15, we’ll see the directors, actors, and crew behind our favorite films receive their flowers at the 98th Academy Awards. This is set to be a historic year in more ways than one, with a newly added award for Achievement in Casting and a new rule requiring members of the Academy to watch all nominated films in a category before casting their votes.
On top of this, it looks like we’re in for a truly formidable race for the most important award of the night: Best Picture.
There have been numerous years when it’s been pretty safe to say which film will end up winning Best Picture months ahead of the live award ceremony. This year, however, several films are reasonable contenders, and while the public has a decent understanding of what films have the strongest and weakest chances, we won’t truly know until the envelope is opened on Sunday night.
Nonetheless, even though there are ten films nominated for the award, there are only five films that I feel have a real shot at taking the statue home. After watching the nominated films, acknowledging the general consensus, and considering the history of the Oscars, here’s a list of the top five films most likely to win Best Picture.
5: Sentimental Value
Norwegian director Joachim Trier and actress Renate Reinsve first broke through to Western audiences with their 2021 film “The Worst Person in the World,” an independent (indie) romantic comedy that garnered major critical acclaim and earned nominations for Best International Feature and Best Original Screenplay at the 94th Academy Awards.
The pair have reunited for Trier’s sixth feature film “Sentimental Value,” a story about the pain of being an artist, the pain of loving an artist, the unifying and healing nature of art—themes that voters in The Academy can’t help but fall for.
By no means am I slandering the film; it’s impossible to doubt that “Sentimental Value” has some of the best acting you’ll see in any movie across the Best Picture category. This is evident in the fact that Reinsve is nominated for Best Leading Actress, Stellan Skarsgård is nominated for Best Supporting Actor, and both Elle Fanning and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas are nominated for Best Supporting Actress.
The final 30 minutes are also absolutely crushing, with an ending that is incredibly poignant and emotionally powerful. Still, it’s so small in scale that it may fade into the background when put against some of the truly grand movies that it’s competing against.
4: Marty Supreme
I’ll be transparent; I’m personally a member of the Timothée Chalamet fan club.
In the span of about a decade, Chalamet has amassed a body of work and collaborated with a collection of directors and actors that could already be put against some household names in his profession.
The only thing missing was a real king-making performance—something undeniable, something that would really cement him in history as one of the greats.
Chalamet has made this a clear goal of his, particularly in his now-infamous speech at the 2025 SAG Awards, where he announced that he’s in the “pursuit of greatness”, comparing himself to the likes of Marlon Brando, Viola Davis, and Michael Jordan.
This was seen as a cocky statement, but when you watch “Marty Supreme”, it’s hard not to think that Chalamet may have been on to something.
The film is loosely based on the life of Marty Reisman, a table tennis player determined to use his talents to go beyond his mediocre, somewhat troubled life in 1950s New York and rise to true stardom. “Marty Supreme” was marketed as a thrilling tale of a man chasing his dreams and believing in himself, but it’s really a portrayal of being dumb, reckless, immature, and slightly psychopathic in your early 20s. It’s filled with the sort of chaotic and anxiety-inducing energy that anyone familiar with the work of director Josh Safdie would expect.
“Marty Supreme” definitely takes a lot of chances, but it all comes together for a stunning piece of art. Still, it’s up against some tough competition at the 98th Academy Awards.
- Hamnet
An intimate period piece about love and loss.
Definitely checks boxes for what a lot of Oscar voters like to see. In the film, Paul Mescal plays William Shakespeare (yes, the William Shakespeare). But the perspective is really centered around his partner Agnes, played by Jessie Buckley.
Buckley’s performance is without a doubt the headline of the film, and it’s no surprise that she’s nominated for Best Actress and is considered the frontrunner in the category. She’s tasked with demanding physical acting, and a large amount of the film’s emotional weight lies solely on her shoulders. I’d also be remiss to not mention that the film is directed by Chloé Zhao, who first rose to fame with her 2020 film “Nomadland”, for which she took home the awards for Best Director and Best Picture at the 93rd Academy Awards.
Like “Sentimental Value,” “Hamnet” also features those same tried-and-true themes about artists and the unifying nature of art.
Still, with all this going for it, “Hamnet” lacks a certain “oomph”– whether it be a grand, singular message, perspective, or display of filmmaking prowess that would guarantee Zhao another Best Picture trophy, especially when compared to some of the other nominees.
“Hamnet” is strong enough that it would very likely be a winner in some weaker years, but it’s facing tough competition.
1a & 1b: Sinners/One Battle After Another
Yes, I know this is a bit of a cop-out, but this genuinely may be one of the closest Best Picture races we’ve ever seen.
Including Best Picture, Sinners is nominated for 16 awards, which makes it the most nominated film in Oscars history. This historic level of recognition could translate into the film winning the biggest award of the night.
“One Battle After Another” (OBAA) director Paul Thomas Anderson and lead actor Leonardo DiCaprio are two of the most respected people in Hollywood, but are also considered some of the most underappreciated people in Hollywood. DiCaprio has won one Oscar despite having eight nominations, and Anderson still hasn’t won an Oscar despite receiving 14 nominations. This presents an opportunity to show some long-overdue appreciation for these two titans of cinema.
Both of these films also have some pretty heavy themes at their cores.
Sinners has a lot to say about the spiritual power and unifying nature of Black art, with the most notorious scene of the movie literalizing the way Black art connects people throughout time and space. There’s also a hard-to-miss metaphor for how industries (and white people, generally) have a desire to take control of Black artists and use their art for personal gain. Especially when taking into consideration Ryan Coogler’s historic deal with Warner Bros. that will grant him full ownership over the film’s rights in 25 years, he’s clearly using “Sinners” to make a statement to the film industry. If the film wins Best Picture, the Academy will show they were listening loud and clear. But they could also easily choose to (and are more incentivized to) reject it.
The main villain of OBAA is Sean Penn’s Colonel Lockjaw, a Greg Bovino-type figure tasked with commanding the arrests and detention of undocumented immigrants. The first sequence of the movie shows Leonardo DiCaprio and Teyana Taylor freeing dozens of people from a detention center. One of the most crucial characters in the film is Sergio St. Carlos, played by Benicio del Toro, who runs a sort of Underground Railroad for undocumented immigrants. It’s quite a politically bold film to make in our current state as a nation, and it’s only becoming more relevant as time goes on. Still, these bold themes and striking relevance can easily hurt the OBAA’s chances when you consider the potential backlash that such a film winning Best Picture would get from the Trump Administration.
All of this is to say that at this point, it’s still hard to tell which of these two films will come out on top when the Oscars come around.
I’d say there’s about a 51/49 chance in OBAA’s favor, but on March 15, we’ll know what message the Academy wants to send.